Many residents subsequently left.A closer look at the Buckee calculation shows that while the researchers estimate 4,645 deaths, statistically there's a 95 percent chance that the actual number could be as low as 793 and as high as 8,498. When the researchers tried to adjust for the fact that people living in single-person households couldn't report their own death, they estimated 5,740 excess deaths, with a margin of error ranging from 1,506 and 9,889.The Buckee number is more than four times higher than a December estimate by the New York Times, which reported that the actual death toll was probably about 1,052 excess deaths based on data from the island's vital statistics bureau and a comparison of deaths during a comparable period in the two previous years.
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