How a Political Tug-of-War Between America and Russia Could Ruin Venezuela

Venezuelan leader Juan Guaidó is gambling that massive civilian protests and nationwide strikes will shake the military’s loyalty to embattled dictator Nicolas Maduro and end the extended political standoff in Caracas. Several have already died, and more violence appears inevitable. But avoiding it is key, because nonviolence tears down dictators better than anything else.The oft-seen trajectories of domestic protest movements is confrontation, violence and foreign intervention. Indeed, in Venezuela, Vladimir Putin has already personally inserted himself, reportedly urging Maduro not to flee while sending Russian operatives and weapons. The Venezuelan National Assembly has considered invoking the Constitution to openly call for foreign military assistance under the precept of responsibility to protect. And some are urging President Donald Trump to end a festering threat. But invading Venezuela is not the answer, at least not yet.Studying successful efforts that mirror those of Guaidó and his fellow Venezuelans reveals a workable model: For the movement to be successful, it must have numbers, discipline, and, most importantly, inspire loyalty shifts within the state’s security forces.The Numbers

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